Aiovel Data Provenance
See where Aiovel’s market observations, prediction odds, event dates and model inputs come from, with clear limits on interpretation.
Provenance standard
Every changing observation should be read as a dated snapshot, not a streaming quote. Aiovel preserves source timestamps, links sources at the row or story level where available, marks retained observations stale, and keeps protected full feeds separate from deliberately limited public previews. A deployment time is not evidence that every underlying observation refreshed.
Market briefings
Structured index and metals observations are collected from Yahoo Finance chart data. News and company claims use linked publisher, company, regulatory or official sources; material claims should use two independent sources where possible. Prices and moves carry observation times. If a source fails, Aiovel may retain a complete last-verified row only when it remains internally consistent and is visibly marked stale.
Prediction markets
Prediction-market boards are snapshots from the Polymarket Gamma API. The displayed percentage is a contract-market price convention, not proof of the event’s true probability or a recommendation to trade. Volume, liquidity, outcome wording, resolution source and deadline affect interpretation. Historical snapshots are append-only; Polymarket itself exposes current state rather than a complete Aiovel archive.
Probability Map
The Probability Map uses historical daily market observations from Yahoo Finance chart data. A rules-based statistical process transforms completed price and range observations into horizon-specific touch and close-beyond estimates, with a descriptive historical cross-check where sufficient data are available.
The public percentages are assumption-dependent research outputs, not options-implied probabilities, personalised forecasts or evidence of a calibrated trading edge. Exact feature construction, weighting and production parameters are proprietary. The current evidence boundary is explained on the Model Validation and Calibration Status page.
Official event calendars
FOMC meeting dates are checked against the Federal Reserve calendar. CPI release dates are checked against the US Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. A relevant prediction contract may be shown separately; it is not an official forecast or a complete probability distribution.
Reproducibility and limitations
Public dated briefing editions preserve the approved public projection, original generation time, archive time and a content hash. Automated validators check schema, timestamps, model arithmetic and public/private boundaries. They cannot prove that a third-party source is correct, that a news selection is complete or that a model will forecast well. See Model Validation and Calibration Status and Corrections Policy.