GARCH Volatility Forecasting
Volatility is not constant and it is not random — turbulent days cluster together. GARCH is the standard way of turning that regularity into a forecast.
Explore financial data, machine learning and AI research methods, including model applications, practical limitations and common mistakes.
32 guides. Start with the introductory topics; follow related links inside each guide.
Volatility is not constant and it is not random — turbulent days cluster together. GARCH is the standard way of turning that regularity into a forecast.
The same model that fails completely at calling the top can be genuinely good at telling you how wide the range will be. The difference is not effort — it is the structure of the data.
An agreement label describes a comparison between methods. It is not automatically a confidence interval or a verified probability of being correct.
AI now touches nearly every corner of finance, from fraud alerts to trading systems. Here's what the term actually covers — and what it doesn't.
Machine learning models find patterns in financial data that traditional formulas can't — here's how they actually work, in plain English.
Statistical forecasting has driven finance for decades. Here's what actually changes — and what doesn't — when machine learning enters the picture.
From catching fraud in milliseconds to underwriting loans, banks have quietly built AI into most of their core operations. Here's where it actually shows up.
Quant funds were early adopters of machine learning long before the current AI wave — here's what it actually does inside a trading operation.
A growing category of software uses AI to scan filings, sentiment, and market data for investors. Here's what these tools actually do, in vendor-neutral terms.
Rather than ranking specific products, here's how to compare categories of AI investing tools by what they're actually built to do.
AI models can read a decade of filings or a day of headlines in seconds. Here's what data they actually process, and how it turns into a signal.
AI models can attempt to forecast a probability distribution of outcomes from historical patterns — but that's a different thing than knowing what a stock will do tomorrow. Here's the honest mechanics.
Short answer: not reliably, and no system has a proven durable edge. Here's why, in plain terms — and what AI is genuinely good for instead.
AI processes more filings and data points than any analyst could alone. Judgment, context, and accountability are a different matter — here's how the two actually compare.
Large language models can summarize filings and explain concepts quickly, but they have real blind spots for stock research. Here's how to use them well — and where to be careful.
Quant desks feed market data into statistical models to look for patterns a human analyst would miss. Here's what that pipeline actually looks like, and why it's harder than it sounds.
Algorithmic trading replaces a human clicking "buy" with code that decides what, when, and how much to trade. Here's how those systems are built, executed, and kept in check.
"AI trading model" covers a wide range of techniques, from decades-old regressions to modern deep learning. Here's what the main families are and where each one is actually used.
Regression, decision trees, neural networks, and ensembles show up constantly in financial machine learning. Here's what each one actually does, in plain terms.
Neural networks can, in principle, learn patterns in price data without being told what to look for. Here's how that actually works in practice, and where it tends to fall short.
Instead of predicting a single number, reinforcement learning trains an agent to make a sequence of trading decisions by rewarding good outcomes and penalizing bad ones. Here's how that setup actually works.
Learn how natural language processing turns news, earnings calls and filings into research signals, and where sentiment models can mislead.
Every card swipe, wire transfer, and login attempt now passes through a model that scores how suspicious it looks — here's how that scoring actually works, and what it can't do.
Credit decisions, trading limits, and capital reserves all rest on risk models — here's how machine learning changes what those models can see and how fast they can adapt.
Robo-advisors turned portfolio construction into software — here's what the algorithms actually automate, and where a human still needs to be in the loop.
Every earnings call, headline, and social post carries a tone — here's how models turn that tone into a number, and what that number can and can't tell you.
Learn how satellite imagery, card spending and web traffic inform investment research, with examples of noisy proxies, data costs and limitations.
Large language models can read a filing, an earnings call transcript, and a research note faster than any human — here's what that actually means, and where the output still needs a second pair of eyes.
Generative AI doesn't just crunch numbers — it drafts text, summarizes documents, and produces first passes of work that used to be entirely manual. Here's where that's actually showing up across finance.
An AI agent doesn't just answer a question — it plans a sequence of steps, pulls data on its own, and works toward a goal. Here's how that shows up in research, monitoring, and decision support.
A growing category of AI tools is built to replicate parts of what an equity research analyst does — gathering data, spotting patterns, drafting notes. Here's what they actually do, and what they don't.
Nobody knows exactly how AI will reshape investing over the next decade. This is a discussion of plausible directions worth thinking about — not a forecast, and not investment advice.