Fixed Income
Treasury Yield Spreads and Rate Prediction Odds
The Treasury curve is a rate forecast expressed in yields. Prediction markets express the same forecast in probabilities. When the two disagree, one of them is missing something.
Wiki learning path
Asset Classes, Bonds and Commodities
Understand bonds, commodities, currencies and other asset classes, including their pricing drivers and relationships.
25 guides. Start with the introductory topics; follow related links inside each guide.
Asset Classes
Stocks Explained
A share of stock is a legal claim on a slice of a company's profits and assets. Everything else about how equities trade — the swings, the headlines, the valuations — flows from that one fact.
Asset Classes
Bonds Explained
A bond is a loan investors make to a government or company in exchange for regular interest and the return of principal. The bond market that trades those loans is bigger than the stock market, and it sets the price of money itself.
Asset Classes
Commodities Explained
Commodities are the raw physical inputs the world runs on — oil, gold, wheat, copper — traded in markets where price is set by the tug-of-war between actual supply and actual demand.
Asset Classes
Currencies Explained
Every currency's value is a relative price — what one unit of money is worth in terms of another. The foreign exchange market that sets those prices is the largest and most liquid market in the world.
Asset Classes
Crypto Explained
Cryptocurrencies are digital assets built on decentralized ledgers, trading as a distinct asset class with its own risk profile, its own market structure, and an increasingly tight link to broader macro conditions.
Asset Classes
ETFs Explained
An exchange-traded fund bundles many securities into a single security you can buy or sell like a stock — the structure that turned diversification into a one-click transaction.
Asset Classes
Futures Explained
A futures contract locks in a price today for an asset to be bought or sold later, and because that market runs longer hours than the underlying cash market, it often shows where prices are heading before the opening bell.
Asset Classes
Options Explained
An option gives its buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price — and the sheer volume of options trading now moves the underlying stock and index markets in its own right.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve Explained
The yield curve is a map of what bond investors expect over time. Its shape, not just its level, is one of the most closely watched signals in markets.
Fixed Income
Yield Curve Inversion: Why It Matters
An inverted yield curve has come before nearly every US recession in the past seventy years. Here's why the signal works, how far ahead it fires, and where it can mislead.
Fixed Income
Real Yields Explained
Nominal yields tell you the interest rate. Real yields tell you what you actually keep after inflation — and they're one of the strongest forces behind the price of gold.
Fixed Income
Bond Duration Explained
Duration measures how much a bond's price moves when interest rates change — the single most important number for understanding interest-rate risk.
Fixed Income
Credit Ratings Explained
From AAA to junk, credit ratings are a shorthand for default risk — and that shorthand drives how much a borrower has to pay to raise money.
Fixed Income
Corporate Bonds vs Government Bonds
Same basic structure — a loan with fixed interest — but very different risk, and a spread in yield that exists for a reason.
Fixed Income
Treasury Auctions Explained
Every week, the US government sells new debt at auction. How that auction goes can move yields — and stocks — before most people notice.
Commodities
Silver Price Drivers Explained
Silver trades with one foot in the vault and one foot on the factory floor, which is exactly why it moves harder than gold in both directions.
Commodities
Copper Price Drivers Explained
Copper runs through nearly every wire, motor, and building on the planet, which is why traders nicknamed it Dr. Copper for its read on global growth.
Commodities
Uranium Price Drivers Explained
Uranium fuels nuclear reactors on multi-decade contracts, so its price cycles run on a much slower clock than oil, gas, or metals.
Commodities
Rare Earth Metals Explained
Rare earth elements are the unglamorous ingredient behind magnets, EVs, and defense hardware — and a supply chain concentrated in one country has turned them into a strategic flashpoint.
Commodities
Agricultural Commodities: Crops, Prices and Inflation
Learn how corn, wheat, soybeans and livestock markets respond to weather, exports and supply changes, and how food prices connect to inflation.
Currency Markets
Carry Trade Explained
Borrow cheap in one currency, invest for a better yield in another — the carry trade is one of the oldest strategies in currency markets, and one of the fastest to unravel.
Currency Markets
Why the Japanese Yen Matters
Decades of near-zero interest rates turned the yen into the world's default funding currency and a classic safe haven at once — a combination that makes its moves felt far beyond Japan.
Currency Markets
What Drives the Euro?
As the currency shared by nineteen economies, the euro answers to interest rate gaps with the US, ECB policy, trade flows, and the political cohesion of the bloc itself.
Currency Markets
FX Intervention Explained
When a currency moves too far too fast, central banks and finance ministries sometimes step in to buy or sell it directly — a tool that grabs headlines but rarely works on its own.