Kalshi Explained

Kalshi operates a designated contract market. A contract’s payout and resolution rules define the instrument; its price expresses market-implied odds.

What Kalshi is

The CFTC lists Kalshi as a designated contract market, with designation dated 3 November 2020 and an amended order permitting intermediated futures trading in January 2025. Exchange designation describes regulatory status; it does not guarantee the accuracy of event probabilities or a trading profit.

Worked binary-payout example

Consider 100 hypothetical Yes contracts bought at 40 cents each. You pay $40 before fees. If the defined Yes event settles at $1, payout is $100 and gross profit is $60. If it settles at $0, the $40 stake is lost. Costs alter the break-even calculation.

This describes a standard binary contract. Confirm the actual payout, market rules and trade costs on the selected product rather than applying the example to every instrument.

Funding is different from contract pricing

Kalshi’s current transfer documentation lists multiple funding methods, including bank, card and crypto routes. Availability differs by account and jurisdiction. The funding route does not by itself define the event contract’s price, payout or settlement source. An outdated statement that Kalshi never uses cryptocurrency would miss those supported transfers.

Rules and quotes before conclusions

Check the source and exact event definition: first release versus revision, above versus at least, and the applicable time zone. Read current eligibility rules rather than assuming that every user can trade every category.

Distinguish displayed probabilities from executable bid and ask prices. Liquidity and spreads affect the usefulness of a quote as a research signal. Regulations and financial incentives do not make a priced outcome certain.

Aiovel explains the comparison process, while its current radar data comes from Polymarket.