Polymarket vs Kalshi Odds Explained
A venue price gap is a research question. Match the event and quote convention before treating it as a disagreement or opportunity.
Compare the same event
Match the outcome definition, resolution source, deadline, time zone and exceptional-case wording. Similar titles do not establish identical settlement. A contract for an announcement is different from one for a completed transaction.
Worked example: gross gap versus execution
Suppose two hypothetical venues display 61% and 55% for an apparently similar event. That is a six-percentage-point display gap. If the first venue’s executable Yes bid is 57 cents and the second’s Yes ask is 58 cents, the apparent cheap-buy/expensive-sale comparison is already negative before fees.
Even with favourable executable prices, buying on one venue and offsetting on another requires matched payouts, eligible access, available depth and a permitted mechanism for both positions. Costs and capital tied up before settlement belong in the calculation. This is an illustrative quote example, not a live arbitrage recommendation.
Use current venue specifications
Kalshi is listed by the CFTC as a designated contract market. Funding options and participant availability can change; its current help pages include crypto funding, so a simple ‘bank account versus crypto wallet’ comparison is incomplete.
Compare each venue’s current market and account documentation. Record whether the displayed odds are a midpoint, last trade or another quote. The number on a summary screen need not be the execution price at your size.
Do not infer calibration from a brand
Neither a venue’s regulatory structure nor a large volume figure proves superior probability calibration for a particular category. That requires a matched, dated set of forecasts and resolved outcomes. Liquidity is useful context, not an accuracy certificate.
Aiovel’s current radar feed is sourced from Polymarket; it is not a live two-venue comparison feed. The Economy board provides dated research examples.
Sources and checks
Definitions checked against the references below on September 17, 2026. Worked examples are illustrative unless explicitly dated. These references do not validate Aiovel forecasts.
Explore the dated public sample and check its source timestamp before using it.
See where the crowd stands now →Quick answers
Does a six-point displayed gap guarantee arbitrage?
No. Settlement rules, executable quotes, depth, costs and access need to match.
Which venue is more accurate?
A defensible answer needs a matched forecast-and-outcome study; branding and liquidity alone do not establish calibration.