Prediction Market Platforms
Polymarket vs Kalshi Odds Explained
A venue price gap is a research question. Match the event and quote convention before treating it as a disagreement or opportunity.
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Prediction Markets and Event Odds
Understand prediction-market prices, contract rules, platform differences and the limits of crowd-priced event probabilities.
37 guides. Start with the introductory topics; follow related links inside each guide.
Prediction Markets
How to Calculate Implied Odds From Prediction Market Prices
For a $1 binary payout, 63 cents corresponds to 63% implied odds before costs. Quotes and calibrated probabilities are different things.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Arbitrage
Two venues quoting the same event at different prices looks like free money. Most of the time it is a wording difference, a fee, or a liquidity mirage — here is how to tell.
Prediction Markets
Tracking Prediction Market Momentum
A market sitting at 40% tells you where the crowd is. A market that was at 22% last week tells you something is happening.
Prediction Market Platforms
Polymarket Resolution Rules Explained
Resolution follows the contract’s written specification. A correct view of the news can still be wrong about the instrument.
Prediction Markets
What Is a Toss-Up Market?
A market at 50% is not the market failing to have an opinion. It is often the most honest number on the board.
Prediction Markets
Geopolitical Prediction Markets: Contracts and Risks
Learn how prediction markets price conflict, sanctions and political events, why contract wording matters, and where crowd-priced odds can mislead.
Prediction Markets
How Prediction Markets Work
A prediction market trades a defined event. Its price is an implied probability; its payout depends on the contract’s exact rules.
Prediction Markets
What Are Prediction Market Contracts?
A prediction-market contract defines a payout for an outcome. The source and wording matter as much as the displayed odds.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Examples Explained
The same contract mechanics apply whether the question is about an election, a jobs report, or a playoff game. Here's what a handful of common categories actually price.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
Both let you risk money on an uncertain outcome, but the plumbing underneath — who sets the price, and why — is fundamentally different.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets vs Financial Markets
Both run on the same basic logic — price as aggregated belief — but a prediction contract and a share of stock aren't measuring the same kind of thing.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets vs Surveys and Polls
A poll asks people what they think will happen or who they support. A market asks people to put money behind their answer. That single difference changes the incentives a lot.
Prediction Markets
Why Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets aren't magic — they rest on a specific set of assumptions about crowds, information, and incentives. Understanding those assumptions is also the key to knowing when the theory breaks down.
Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Accuracy Explained
"Accurate" doesn't mean what it sounds like for a probability. Here's how forecast quality is actually measured, and what tends to move it up or down.
Prediction Markets
How Reliable Are Prediction Markets?
Not every market deserves the same trust. Here's what actually separates a price worth taking seriously from one that's mostly noise.
Prediction Market Platforms
Best Prediction Market Platforms
There's no single "best" prediction market — the right platform depends on what you're trading, where you live, and how much you trade. Here's the criteria that actually matter.
Prediction Market Platforms
Polymarket Explained
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where traders buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, settled in a stablecoin rather than a bank account.
Prediction Market Platforms
Kalshi Explained
Kalshi operates a designated contract market. A contract’s payout and resolution rules define the instrument; its price expresses market-implied odds.
Prediction Market Platforms
Prediction Market Exchanges Explained
Under the hood, most prediction market platforms work like financial exchanges: traders meet on an order book, and price discovery — not a bookmaker — sets the odds.
Prediction Market Platforms
Decentralized Prediction Markets Explained
Decentralized prediction markets replace a brokerage and a clearinghouse with smart contracts — code that holds funds in escrow and pays out automatically once an outcome is confirmed.
Prediction Market Platforms
Prediction Markets on Blockchain
Blockchain infrastructure lets prediction markets settle in a stable digital currency and admit traders anywhere with an internet connection — here's the plumbing behind that.
Prediction Market Platforms
Prediction Market Liquidity Explained
A prediction market's probability is only as reliable as the liquidity behind it — here's what spreads, depth, and volume actually tell you.
Prediction Market Platforms
Prediction Market Trading Strategies
Trading a prediction market is really trading a probability. Here's how experienced traders look for mispricing, and the mistakes that most often cost them.
Prediction Markets & Finance
How Prediction Markets Forecast Economic Events
Inflation prints, GDP growth, recession calls — traders now bet real money on all of it. Here's what those contracts capture that a headline forecast can't.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Prediction Markets and Federal Reserve Decisions
Every FOMC meeting now has a live, tradable probability attached to it. Here's how those contracts work and what actually moves them.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Prediction Markets and Election Forecasting
Election markets turn thousands of individual bets into one running probability. Here's the mechanism behind that number, and why it moves the way it does.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Election Prediction Markets Explained
A closer look at how political contracts are actually built — nominations, general elections, multi-candidate fields, and why the market's number can diverge from the polling average.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Prediction Markets and Market Sentiment
Sentiment is usually inferred indirectly, from surveys or price action. Prediction markets let you watch it priced directly, one specific question at a time.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Prediction Markets as Alternative Data
Alternative data used to mean satellite images and credit card panels. Increasingly it also means the live probability sitting on a prediction-market contract.
Prediction Markets & Finance
Using Prediction Markets for Investment Research
Prediction-market odds are a genuinely new kind of input for investors — here's where they fit in a research process, and where they should stay a supporting signal rather than the whole story.
Prediction Market Theory
Wisdom of Crowds Explained
Why a large group of ordinary guesses can outperform a single expert — and the specific conditions that have to hold for that to be true.
Prediction Market Theory
Information Aggregation in Markets
No single trader knows everything relevant to a price. Here's how a market combines thousands of partial, private views into one number.
Prediction Market Theory
Market Efficiency and Prediction Markets
Financial markets are supposed to price in everything that's knowable. Do prediction markets, which run on the same logic, actually behave the same way?
Prediction Market Theory
Prediction Market Biases
Prices aggregate opinion, but the process isn't neutral. Here are the recurring ways prediction market prices drift from a fair read of the odds.
Prediction Market Theory
Why Prediction Markets Fail
Prediction markets can aggregate information well and still get an outcome badly wrong. Here's a look at the specific ways that happens.
Prediction Market Theory
Insider Information and Prediction Markets
A price that moves early because someone knows something the rest of the market doesn't is a familiar problem in finance. Prediction markets add a few wrinkles of their own.