Polymarket Resolution Rules Explained

Resolution follows the contract’s written specification. A correct view of the news can still be wrong about the instrument.

Start with four fields

Read the outcome definition, named resolution source, deadline and time zone, and exceptional-case rules. Record them alongside the market identifier. A title is a summary; the full specification decides settlement.

Worked example: announced versus completed

Consider two hypothetical contracts titled ‘Company A buys Company B.’ One says an acquisition must be publicly announced before 31 December; the other requires completion by that date. An announcement on 20 December with closing in February can satisfy the first and fail the second. Their prices are not prices for an identical event.

The same issue occurs with ‘above’ versus ‘at or above,’ preliminary versus final economic releases, and midnight UTC versus a US local deadline. These examples explain wording risk; they are not live contract interpretations.

Settlement is a process

Polymarket’s documentation describes an UMA optimistic-oracle process with proposals and possible disputes. Refer to the venue’s current procedure and each market’s rules. Do not assume the headline deadline is the exact payout time.

What a price short of 100% cannot tell you

An apparent outcome can leave uncertainty about the event definition, verification, liquidity or capital tied up before settlement. A 92-cent quote does not prove the remaining eight points are solely resolution risk. Price alone cannot identify those components.

The Aiovel radar is a dated research snapshot. Use its venue link to inspect the contract before drawing a conclusion.