Polymarket Resolution Rules Explained
The most underrated risk in event trading is not being wrong about the world. It is being right about the world and wrong about the contract.
The contract is the wording, not the headline
Every event contract is a legal-style specification: a described outcome, a named source of truth, and a deadline. The market title is a summary of that specification, and summaries lose detail.
Traders who price off the title alone are pricing a different instrument than the one they hold. This is the single most common avoidable error in event markets, and it is entirely preventable by reading the resolution text.
How resolution works on an on-chain venue
Polymarket contracts settle against an oracle process. When a market's deadline passes, a proposed outcome is submitted, there is a challenge window during which it can be disputed, and disputes escalate to a resolution mechanism before the result becomes final.
The practical consequence is that resolution is not instantaneous and not entirely mechanical. Ambiguous real-world events can produce genuine disputes, and the possibility of dispute is itself priced into contracts that are close to their boundary.
Where the ambiguity usually hides
The source. 'Credible reporting' is a materially different standard from a named agency's official release. The looser the source definition, the more resolution risk the contract carries.
The deadline and time zone. A contract resolving at midnight UTC and one resolving at end of day Eastern are different instruments during the hours between.
The definition of the event. What exactly counts as an 'agreement', a 'ceasefire', a 'launch', or an 'acquisition'? Announced or completed? Signed or ratified? These distinctions decide contracts.
What happens if nothing happens. Many contracts resolve No by default if the event has not occurred by the deadline, which quietly makes them a bet on timing rather than on eventuality.
Why resolution risk shows up in the price
A contract with clean, mechanical resolution criteria — a published number from a named agency — can trade very close to 0 or 100 as the outcome becomes clear. A contract with judgement-dependent wording tends to stall short of the extremes, because holders are pricing the chance the resolution process disagrees with the obvious real-world reading.
So a market that seems stuck at 92% when the event looks certain is often not mispriced. It is telling you that eight points of that price are resolution risk, not event risk.
Browse live markets with volume, liquidity and resolution dates surfaced on every card before you dig into the rules.
See where the crowd stands now →Quick answers
What are resolution rules in a prediction market?
The precise specification of what outcome settles the contract: the named source of truth, the exact deadline, and the definition of the event. They are the actual terms of the instrument, not the market title.
Why does a market stall at 90% when the outcome seems certain?
Frequently because the remaining gap is resolution risk rather than event risk — uncertainty about whether the resolution process will interpret the event the same way an ordinary reader would.
Can a prediction market resolve against the obvious real-world outcome?
Yes, if the contract wording, source, or deadline differs from the everyday interpretation. This is why reading the full resolution criteria before trading is essential.