S&P 500 Index: price-level probability estimates
How likely is S&P 500 index to reach each price level, and by when? The public sample shows selected Aiovel outputs while feature construction, component estimates, weighting and production parameters remain private. These are research estimates, not options quotes or forecasts of direction. A recent rise does not automatically increase upside odds. Compare distances: nearer levels are easier to touch, and both sides can be touched in the same window.
Tomorrow
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,900 | +2.52% | 3.0% | High |
| 7,850 | +1.87% | 8.2% | High |
| 7,800 | +1.22% | 22.1% | High |
| 7,750 | +0.57% | 57.0% | High |
| 7,706.03 · now | +0.00% | — | — |
| 7,700 | -0.08% | 84.9% | Medium |
| 7,650 | -0.73% | 45.2% | High |
| 7,600 | -1.38% | 18.6% | High |
| 7,550 | -2.02% | 7.1% | High |
This Week
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7,900 | +2.52% | 12.7% | High |
| 7,850 | +1.87% | 24.2% | High |
| 7,800 | +1.22% | 45.8% | High |
| 7,750 | +0.57% | 72.4% | High |
| 7,706.03 · now | +0.00% | — | — |
| 7,700 | -0.08% | 90.3% | Medium |
| 7,650 | -0.73% | 62.8% | High |
| 7,600 | -1.38% | 38.2% | High |
| 7,550 | -2.02% | 22.0% | High |
Other instruments
How to read this
Touch odds
Touch odds are the chance the price trades at that level at any point during the window — even for a moment. Upside and downside touch odds are separate events and do not add to 100%.
Consistency label
This is a qualitative warning about how consistently the underlying checks support the published estimate. It is not a calibrated confidence interval or a guarantee.
Evidence boundary
Aiovel publishes dated outputs, aggregate validation evidence and known limitations. Exact feature construction, component estimates, weighting and production parameters are proprietary and are intentionally not included in this public feed.
What this is not
These figures are not live quotes, options-implied probabilities, personalised forecasts or evidence of a trading edge. Regime shifts, gaps, sparse observations and data revisions can all make historical relationships unreliable.