How likely is gold to reach each price level, and by when? Every figure below is derived from about two years of real daily price history — a volatility ensemble cross-checked against how often that move actually happened. No options data, no forecasts of direction. A recent rise does not automatically increase upside odds. Compare distances: nearer levels are easier to touch, and both sides can be touched in the same window.
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | High |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 5.8% | High |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 21.9% | 13.2% | 17.5% | High |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 59.8% | 34.6% | 50.5% | Medium |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 59.8% | 37.0% | 45.5% | Low |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 22.1% | 14.3% | 15.7% | Medium |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 6.6% | High |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 2.8% | High |
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 6.2% | High |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 17.2% | 9.8% | 14.7% | High |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 37.2% | 21.5% | 31.5% | Medium |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 71.6% | 39.0% | 65.3% | Medium |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 69.8% | 40.7% | 58.2% | Medium |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 35.4% | 22.5% | 25.9% | Medium |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 16.2% | 10.0% | 12.4% | High |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | High |
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 23.7% | 12.8% | 21.6% | High |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 39.5% | 20.7% | 37.7% | High |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 60.3% | 30.9% | 58.9% | High |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 83.4% | 43.0% | 81.0% | High |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 78.7% | 44.1% | 69.1% | Medium |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 51.4% | 31.6% | 39.5% | Medium |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 33.2% | 20.9% | 24.6% | Medium |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 21.3% | 12.6% | 17.4% | High |
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 61.2% | 29.0% | 64.4% | High |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 73.2% | 34.5% | 77.4% | High |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 83.3% | 40.4% | 85.9% | High |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 93.2% | 46.6% | 93.4% | High |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 88.6% | 47.1% | 83.0% | Medium |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 70.9% | 40.8% | 60.2% | Medium |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 56.1% | 34.6% | 43.1% | Low |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 45.4% | 28.8% | 33.3% | Medium |
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 79.5% | 37.5% | 84.1% | High |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 85.0% | 40.9% | 88.2% | High |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 91.1% | 44.4% | 93.4% | High |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 96.6% | 48.0% | 97.3% | High |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 91.2% | 48.3% | 85.7% | Medium |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 77.4% | 44.6% | 65.5% | Medium |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 66.2% | 41.0% | 50.6% | Low |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 58.0% | 37.3% | 41.3% | Low |
| Price level | Distance | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,700 | +3.92% | 90.0% | 41.1% | 97.9% | Medium |
| 4,650 | +2.81% | 93.0% | 43.5% | 98.9% | Medium |
| 4,600 | +1.71% | 95.9% | 46.0% | 99.7% | High |
| 4,550 | +0.60% | 98.5% | 48.6% | 99.7% | High |
| 4,522.7 · now | +0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 4,500 | -0.50% | 91.1% | 48.8% | 84.7% | Medium |
| 4,450 | -1.61% | 77.8% | 46.2% | 63.2% | Low |
| 4,400 | -2.71% | 65.9% | 43.6% | 44.7% | Low |
| 4,350 | -3.82% | 57.6% | 41.0% | 33.3% | Low |
Touch odds are the chance the price trades at that level at any point during the window — even for a moment. Close beyond is the narrower chance it actually finishes the window past that level. Touch is always the larger of the two.
A descriptive check using the same price history: across roughly two years of completed daily bars, how often a move of that size actually occurred over a window of that length. When it sits close to the model number, the two methods agree. Each window starts AFTER its baseline close; overlapping windows are not independent trials. Agreement is not calibrated forecast confidence.
Three volatility estimates are computed — 20-day realised, 90-day realised, and a Brownian-range-scaled ATR(14) proxy. The header reports agreement among those volatility estimates; each table row reports model-versus-history agreement. Wide disagreement means the recent regime is shifting, so treat the numbers as looser.
The volatility component assumes zero drift in log prices. Its probabilities are symmetric for equal log-distance barriers; the historical blend can be asymmetric. There is no momentum forecast. Horizons are counts of future trading sessions (calendar days for Bitcoin), not calendar month or year-end deadlines. Futures history can include contract-roll effects.