How Probability Surfaces Differ From Static Price Targets

A surface shows an event and horizon for each estimate. It can explain uncertainty more clearly without proving that the model is accurate.

Ask for an event and a clock

A price target is a point estimate or scenario. Some analyst targets already state a horizon and assumptions, so it is inaccurate to say every target contains no time information. A probability surface instead displays many thresholds across several horizons.

The surface must specify the event: touching a barrier at any time and finishing beyond it are different probabilities. A number without that definition cannot be interpreted reliably.

Worked path example

Start a hypothetical asset at 100. It rises to 106 on day two, then ends day five at 102. A five-day touch event for 105 occurred, but a day-five close above 105 did not. A path that visits both 105 and 95 can satisfy two touch events, so upside and downside touch probabilities are not complementary outcomes.

What Aiovel’s numbers represent

The Gold and S&P 500 public pages show dated historical-volatility estimates. A volatility component is blended with descriptive historical touch frequencies. This is neither option-implied pricing nor a market contract’s trader-priced odds.

Useful structure, uncertain estimates

Closer barriers are usually easier to reach under a continuous constant-volatility model. Longer windows offer more time for a touch. Those structural relationships do not establish forecast calibration, and changing regimes can alter the estimate.

Evaluate a surface by recording forecasts before outcomes, preserving timestamps, matching the actual instrument, and measuring forward performance across many observations. Display precision is not evidence of accuracy. A futures series can also differ from a spot asset and include contract-roll effects.