How likely is SPY to reach each price level, and by when? Every figure below is derived from about two years of real daily price history — a volatility ensemble cross-checked against how often that move actually happened. No options data, no forecasts of direction.
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 1.4% | 0.2% | 2.4% | High |
| 790 | 5.5% | 1.8% | 7.4% | High |
| 785 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 18.6% | High |
| 780 | 60.7% | 28.7% | 64.0% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 37.0% | 16.3% | 41.4% | High |
| 765 | 11.6% | 3.9% | 15.4% | High |
| 760 | 3.4% | 0.5% | 5.8% | High |
| 755 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | High |
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 5.1% | 2.2% | 5.8% | High |
| 790 | 13.5% | 7.0% | 13.0% | High |
| 785 | 32.7% | 17.4% | 30.7% | High |
| 780 | 71.8% | 34.5% | 74.5% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 51.6% | 24.4% | 54.5% | High |
| 765 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 26.1% | High |
| 760 | 9.7% | 3.6% | 12.2% | High |
| 755 | 3.3% | 0.9% | 4.8% | High |
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 16.9% | High |
| 790 | 33.1% | 17.5% | 31.2% | High |
| 785 | 54.2% | 27.6% | 53.2% | High |
| 780 | 81.8% | 40.1% | 83.5% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 67.5% | 33.0% | 69.0% | High |
| 765 | 42.7% | 21.5% | 42.3% | High |
| 760 | 26.1% | 12.7% | 26.8% | High |
| 755 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 15.1% | High |
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 56.0% | 26.7% | 58.5% | High |
| 790 | 67.6% | 32.4% | 70.4% | High |
| 785 | 80.1% | 38.6% | 82.9% | High |
| 780 | 92.0% | 45.1% | 93.8% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 83.7% | 41.5% | 84.4% | High |
| 765 | 69.0% | 35.0% | 67.9% | High |
| 760 | 55.0% | 28.9% | 52.1% | High |
| 755 | 42.2% | 23.3% | 37.7% | High |
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 76.8% | 36.0% | 81.5% | High |
| 790 | 84.0% | 39.6% | 88.8% | High |
| 785 | 90.8% | 43.4% | 95.0% | High |
| 780 | 96.7% | 47.2% | 99.1% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 88.3% | 45.1% | 86.5% | High |
| 765 | 77.3% | 41.2% | 72.1% | Medium |
| 760 | 67.0% | 37.4% | 59.1% | Medium |
| 755 | 59.4% | 33.7% | 51.4% | Medium |
| Price level | Touch odds | Close beyond | Historical | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 795 | 88.1% | 40.0% | 96.3% | Medium |
| 790 | 91.0% | 42.6% | 96.8% | Medium |
| 785 | 94.6% | 45.3% | 98.7% | High |
| 780 | 98.0% | 48.0% | 100.0% | High |
| 775 · now | — | — | — | — |
| 770 | 92.1% | 46.5% | 91.2% | High |
| 765 | 84.7% | 43.8% | 81.9% | High |
| 760 | 78.0% | 41.0% | 73.9% | High |
| 755 | 72.8% | 38.3% | 69.1% | High |
Touch odds are the chance the price trades at that level at any point during the window — even for a moment. Close beyond is the narrower chance it actually finishes the window past that level. Touch is always the larger of the two.
An independent sanity check: across roughly two years of real daily history, how often a move of that size actually occurred over a window of that length. When it sits close to the model number, the estimate is on firmer ground.
Three volatility estimates are computed — 20-day realised, 90-day realised, and one implied by ATR(14). Confidence reflects how tightly they agree. Wide disagreement means the recent regime is shifting, so treat the numbers as looser.
The model is deliberately direction-neutral: it estimates how far price is likely to travel, not which way it will go. It uses no options-market data and is not a forecast or a recommendation.