Economy
Fed decisions and economic prediction markets
Economists forecast; traders take the other side of a bet. This board shows what people are willing to lose money on when it comes to rate decisions, inflation prints and recession calls. The gap between a consensus forecast and a market price is usually the more interesting number — a 60% market price on a rate cut is a much weaker claim than a headline saying “economists expect a cut.”
Live markets
1
Binary questions tracked in Economy
Money at stake
$13.7M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
2.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Most contested
20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Track record
13
Economy markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Economy market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? 92d left20%yes▼ 2.0pp7dVolume $13.7M 24h $66K Liquidity $573K
Rate-path markets reprice fastest around FOMC meetings and CPI releases — the 7-day column is where that shows up first.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 6 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about economy odds
Are prediction-market odds better than economist forecasts?
They are different instruments. A forecast is an opinion with no cost attached; a market price is what someone accepted financial risk to hold. Markets tend to update faster on news, but they are thinner and can be moved by a single large trader — which is why this board shows volume and liquidity beside every probability.
What moves Fed-related odds the most?
FOMC statements and the dot plot, CPI and PCE releases, and payrolls. Rate-path markets often reprice within minutes of those prints, well before published forecasts are revised.
Why do several Fed markets show similar questions?
Polymarket lists the same rate decision at multiple thresholds — 25bps, 50bps, number of cuts in a year. AIOVEL caps each question family at two markets per board so one family cannot crowd out the rest of the theme.