Economy
What traders are actually pricing on the Fed
Economists forecast; traders take the other side of a bet. This board shows what people are willing to lose money on when it comes to rate decisions, inflation prints and recession calls. The gap between a consensus forecast and a market price is usually the more interesting number — a 60% market price on a rate cut is a much weaker claim than a headline saying “economists expect a cut.”
Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Economy
Money at stake
$79.0M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
10.0pp
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Most contested
55%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Track record
7
Economy markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Economy market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? 12d left1%yes▼ 0.9pp7dVolume $24.2M 24h $1.7M Liquidity $1.1M
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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? 12d left60%yes▼ 9.0pp7dVolume $21.6M 24h $1.8M Liquidity $438K
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? 118d left26%yes▼ 5.0pp7dVolume $10.4M 24h $37K Liquidity $477K
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Fed rate hike in 2026? 96d left62%yes▲ 6.0pp7dVolume $8.5M 24h $56K Liquidity $122K
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Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? 118d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $4.9M 24h $103 Liquidity $528K
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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? 118d left0%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $4.3M 24h $94 Liquidity $494K
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US recession by end of 2026? 149d left7%yes— 0.5pp7dVolume $1.7M 24h $2K Liquidity $18K
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Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? 118d left2%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $313 Liquidity $36K
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Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 118d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $823K 24h $375 Liquidity $191K
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Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 118d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $807K 24h $208 Liquidity $211K
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Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? 96d left55%yes▲ 10.0pp7dVolume $605K 24h $25K Liquidity $93K
Rate-path markets reprice fastest around FOMC meetings and CPI releases — the 7-day column is where that shows up first.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about economy odds
Are prediction-market odds better than economist forecasts?
They are different instruments. A forecast is an opinion with no cost attached; a market price is what someone accepted financial risk to hold. Markets tend to update faster on news, but they are thinner and can be moved by a single large trader — which is why this board shows volume and liquidity beside every probability.
What moves Fed-related odds the most?
FOMC statements and the dot plot, CPI and PCE releases, and payrolls. Rate-path markets often reprice within minutes of those prints, well before published forecasts are revised.
Why do several Fed markets show similar questions?
Polymarket lists the same rate decision at multiple thresholds — 25bps, 50bps, number of cuts in a year. AIOVEL caps each question family at two markets per board so one family cannot crowd out the rest of the theme.