AIOVEL Prediction Markets
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Crypto

Where the crowd sits on crypto policy and price

Crypto is the one category where prediction markets and the underlying asset share a trader base, which cuts both ways: pricing reacts fast, and it carries the same reflexivity as the spot market. The legislative markets tend to be the more informative half of this board — bill-passage odds move on committee scheduling long before they move on sentiment.

Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Crypto
Money at stake
$37.5M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
30.5pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Most contested
28%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Track record
19
Crypto markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Crypto market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
Legislation markets resolve on a specific signing or vote; price markets usually resolve on a named exchange feed at a named time.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 66 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Economy
11 markets · $51.9M
Geopolitics
11 markets · $262.9M
Crypto
11 markets · $37.5M
Finance
11 markets · $33.2M
Technology
11 markets · $10.8M
Commodities
11 markets · $3.5M
Questions about crypto odds
Do crypto prediction markets predict crypto prices?
Only for the specific question asked. A market on “BTC above $X by date Y” is a probability for that threshold on that date — not a price target, and not a forecast of the path in between.
Why do legislation markets move before the news?
Procedural signals — committee calendars, sponsor counts, floor scheduling — are public and tracked closely by a small number of participants. That information reaches the price well before general coverage.
What resolves a crypto price market?
Typically a named exchange or index at a stated timestamp, and often a settlement value rather than an intraday high. Two markets with the same headline number can resolve differently.