Geopolitics
Conflict and policy risk, priced by people with money on it
Geopolitics is the deepest board here by a wide margin, and it is the one where headline and resolution diverge most. A market titled “will the U.S. invade Iran” may require an offensive intended to establish territorial control — airstrikes alone would not settle it Yes. Read the odds as answers to a narrow, precisely-worded question rather than to the headline.
Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Geopolitics
Money at stake
$262.9M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
1.1pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Most contested
16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Track record
10
Geopolitics markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Geopolitics market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 132d left16%yes▼ 1.0pp7dVolume $59.2M 24h $96K Liquidity $1.1M
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 132d left4%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $39.9M 24h $33K Liquidity $583K
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Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 132d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $32.8M 24h $0 Liquidity $96K
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Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 132d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $25.8M 24h $210 Liquidity $182K
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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? 132d left6%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $24.8M 24h $22K Liquidity $834K
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Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? 132d left8%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $19.5M 24h $65K Liquidity $732K
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? 10d left0%yes▼ 1.1pp7dVolume $15.5M 24h $118K Liquidity $450K
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Xi Jinping out before 2027? 132d left4%yes— 0.3pp7dVolume $12.3M 24h $12K Liquidity $327K
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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? 132d left3%yes▼ 0.7pp7dVolume $11.7M 24h $574 Liquidity $104K
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Trump out as President before 2027? 132d left6%yes▼ 1.0pp7dVolume $10.9M 24h $12K Liquidity $360K
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Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? 132d left6%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $10.6M 24h $2K Liquidity $85K
Tail-risk questions sit at low probabilities for long stretches and move violently. Absolute 7-day change matters more than the level here.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 66 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about geopolitics odds
Why are so many geopolitical odds in single digits?
Most are genuine tail risks — events that are unlikely in any given year but severe if they happen. A market sitting at 4% for months is informative precisely because it is stable; the signal is in the move, not the level.
Does a low probability mean the risk is not worth watching?
No. A 5% chance of a shipping-chokepoint closure is a small number attached to a very large consequence. That is why this board sizes each market by money at stake rather than ranking purely by probability.
How precise are these questions?
Very — and that is the catch. Resolution criteria often exclude cases a casual reader would assume count. AIOVEL captures each market's end date and resolution terms alongside the price for that reason.