AIOVEL Prediction Markets
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Commodities

Gold and oil price odds — crowd against model

This is the one board where AIOVEL can show both halves of the picture. The crowd prices a gold or WTI level here; the Market Probability Map independently estimates the odds of that same level from measured volatility. Where the two disagree is more interesting than either number alone — and nobody else publishes both.

Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Commodities
Money at stake
$3.5M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
59.5pp
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August?
Most contested
55%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?
Track record
10
Commodities markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Commodities market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
Watch the touch-versus-settle distinction: a market titled “hit $6,000” may resolve on a settlement price rather than an intraday high, which is a materially different question.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 66 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Economy
11 markets · $51.9M
Geopolitics
11 markets · $262.9M
Crypto
11 markets · $37.5M
Finance
11 markets · $33.2M
Technology
11 markets · $10.8M
Commodities
11 markets · $3.5M
Questions about commodities odds
Does “hit $6,000” mean the price touched that level?
Not necessarily. Several commodity markets resolve on an official settlement price on a trading day, not on the intraday high. A level can trade through intraday and still settle the market No.
How does this compare with AIOVEL's probability map?
The map estimates touch and close probabilities from measured historical volatility with no directional view. The market price here is what traders will pay. They are independent estimates of related questions, which is what makes the comparison worth making.
Why is the commodities board smaller than the others?
Commodity contracts are shorter-dated and roll over frequently, so lifetime volume accumulates more slowly. AIOVEL deliberately excludes Polymarket's “Oil” tag here because its largest markets are chokepoint geopolitics rather than commodity pricing.