Commodities
Gold and oil price odds — crowd against model
This is the one board where AIOVEL can show both halves of the picture. The crowd prices a gold or WTI level here; the Market Probability Map independently estimates the odds of that same level from measured volatility. Where the two disagree is more interesting than either number alone — and nobody else publishes both.
Live markets
7
Binary questions tracked in Commodities
Money at stake
$3.4M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
34.4pp
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
Most contested
51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
Track record
27
Commodities markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Commodities market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? 112d left10%yes▼ 2.0pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $51 Liquidity $26K
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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? 113d left12%yes▲ 1.0pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $27K Liquidity $98K
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Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? 113d left18%yes▲ 2.0pp7dVolume $440K 24h $343 Liquidity $24K
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Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? 113d left24%yes▼ 3.0pp7dVolume $279K 24h $439 Liquidity $11K
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? 21d left51%yes▲ 34.4pp7dVolume $200K 24h $44K Liquidity $35K
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? 21d left30%yes▲ 22.0pp7dVolume $199K 24h $8K Liquidity $40K
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Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? 112d left4%yes▼ 1.0pp7dVolume $162K 24h $62 Liquidity $21K
Watch the touch-versus-settle distinction: a market titled “hit $6,000” may resolve on a settlement price rather than an intraday high, which is a materially different question.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about commodities odds
Does “hit $6,000” mean the price touched that level?
Not necessarily. Several commodity markets resolve on an official settlement price on a trading day, not on the intraday high. A level can trade through intraday and still settle the market No.
How does this compare with AIOVEL's probability map?
The map estimates touch and close probabilities from measured historical volatility with no directional view. The market price here is what traders will pay. They are independent estimates of related questions, which is what makes the comparison worth making.
Why is the commodities board smaller than the others?
Commodity contracts are shorter-dated and roll over frequently, so lifetime volume accumulates more slowly. AIOVEL deliberately excludes Polymarket's “Oil” tag here because its largest markets are chokepoint geopolitics rather than commodity pricing.