Technology

Odds on the technology milestones people keep arguing about

This board is where speculation about AI capability, launches and space milestones gets an actual number attached. It is also the thinnest of the six by money at stake, which matters: a headline probability backed by five figures of volume deserves less weight than the same number backed by eight. The momentum column tends to be more informative here than the level.

Live markets

Binary questions tracked in Technology

Money at stake

$11.6M

Lifetime traded volume

Biggest 7d swing

19.0pp

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Most contested

38%

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Track record

Technology markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution

Every Technology market

Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.

Human moon landing in 2026? 114d left

1%yes

— 0.1pp7d

Volume $2.0M 24h $10 Liquidity $22K
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? 114d left

13%yes

— 0.5pp7d

Volume $1.7M 24h $289 Liquidity $2K
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? 114d left

8%yes

▼ 2.1pp7d

Volume $1.2M 24h $2K Liquidity $1K
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? 478d left

94%yes

▲ 19.0pp7d

Volume $1.0M 24h $0 Liquidity $6K
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 113d left

0%yes

▼ 0.6pp7d

Volume $944K 24h $2K Liquidity $103K
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 114d left

2%yes

— 0.4pp7d

Volume $937K 24h $8 Liquidity $22K
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 113d left

0%yes

— 0.0pp7d

Volume $904K 24h $46K Liquidity $256K
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 113d left

38%yes

▼ 1.5pp7d

Volume $873K 24h $324 Liquidity $25K
GTA 6 launch postponed again? 71d left

6%yes

— 0.0pp7d

Volume $797K 24h $6K Liquidity $55K
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 113d left

0%yes

— 0.0pp7d

Volume $657K 24h $0 Liquidity $96K
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? 113d left

3%yes

— 0.3pp7d

Volume $583K 24h $103 Liquidity $3K

Lower volume means noisier prices. Weight the money-at-stake figure heavily when reading anything on this board.

See all six themes on the live radar

Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart

Other themes

Same board, different corner of the market.

Questions about technology odds

How seriously should I take AI milestone odds?

As a live sentiment gauge among people willing to stake money, not as a technical forecast. These markets are thin, and definitions of “achieved” are set by the market's own resolution terms rather than by any research consensus.

Why does this board carry less money than the others?

Technology questions resolve on longer horizons and narrower criteria, which attracts fewer participants. AIOVEL still applies a $20,000 lifetime-volume floor so the thinnest contracts never reach the board.

What counts as a milestone being reached?

Whatever the market's resolution text says — usually a specific public demonstration, launch, or benchmark by a stated date. The wording is narrower than the headline nearly every time.