Technology

Odds on the technology milestones people keep arguing about

This board is where speculation about AI capability, launches and space milestones gets an actual number attached. It is also the thinnest of the six by money at stake, which matters: a headline probability backed by five figures of volume deserves less weight than the same number backed by eight. The momentum column tends to be more informative here than the level.

Live markets

Binary questions tracked in Technology

Money at stake

$11.8M

Lifetime traded volume

Biggest 7d swing

10.0pp

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Most contested

58%

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Track record

Technology markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution

Every Technology market

Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.

Human moon landing in 2026? 119d left

1%yes

— 0.0pp7d

Volume $2.0M 24h $54 Liquidity $25K
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? 119d left

13%yes

▼ 8.5pp7d

Volume $1.7M 24h $103 Liquidity $4K
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? 119d left

10%yes

▲ 1.0pp7d

Volume $1.2M 24h $18 Liquidity $5K
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? 483d left

86%yes

▲ 10.0pp7d

Volume $1.0M 24h $0 Liquidity $5K
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 118d left

58%yes

▼ 1.2pp7d

Volume $973K 24h $1K Liquidity $120K
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 119d left

2%yes

— 0.4pp7d

Volume $937K 24h $0 Liquidity $21K
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 118d left

1%yes

— 0.2pp7d

Volume $933K 24h $5K Liquidity $88K
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 118d left

15%yes

▲ 3.9pp7d

Volume $875K 24h $4K Liquidity $158K
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 118d left

40%yes

▼ 1.0pp7d

Volume $844K 24h $1K Liquidity $26K
GTA 6 launch postponed again? 76d left

6%yes

▼ 2.0pp7d

Volume $768K 24h $585 Liquidity $30K
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? 118d left

3%yes

— 0.2pp7d

Volume $580K 24h $0 Liquidity $2K

Lower volume means noisier prices. Weight the money-at-stake figure heavily when reading anything on this board.

See all six themes on the live radar

Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart

Other themes

Same board, different corner of the market.

Questions about technology odds

How seriously should I take AI milestone odds?

As a live sentiment gauge among people willing to stake money, not as a technical forecast. These markets are thin, and definitions of “achieved” are set by the market's own resolution terms rather than by any research consensus.

Why does this board carry less money than the others?

Technology questions resolve on longer horizons and narrower criteria, which attracts fewer participants. AIOVEL still applies a $20,000 lifetime-volume floor so the thinnest contracts never reach the board.

What counts as a milestone being reached?

Whatever the market's resolution text says — usually a specific public demonstration, launch, or benchmark by a stated date. The wording is narrower than the headline nearly every time.