Technology
Odds on the technology milestones people keep arguing about
This board is where speculation about AI capability, launches and space milestones gets an actual number attached. It is also the thinnest of the six by money at stake, which matters: a headline probability backed by five figures of volume deserves less weight than the same number backed by eight. The momentum column tends to be more informative here than the level.
Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Technology
Money at stake
$10.8M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
18.5pp
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Most contested
52%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Track record
15
Technology markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Technology market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Human moon landing in 2026? 132d left1%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $2.0M 24h $0 Liquidity $24K
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Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? 132d left22%yes— 0.5pp7dVolume $1.7M 24h $5 Liquidity $2K
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Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? 132d left8%yes— 0.5pp7dVolume $1.2M 24h $19 Liquidity $3K
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Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? 132d left3%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $936K 24h $0 Liquidity $22K
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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 132d left14%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $825K 24h $223 Liquidity $165K
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Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 132d left48%yes▲ 18.1pp7dVolume $813K 24h $8K Liquidity $30K
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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 132d left1%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $801K 24h $705 Liquidity $217K
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Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 132d left52%yes▼ 18.5pp7dVolume $764K 24h $6K Liquidity $25K
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GTA 6 launch postponed again? 90d left8%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $686K 24h $20K Liquidity $9K
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FDA approves Retatrutide this year? 132d left3%yes▼ 0.7pp7dVolume $579K 24h $0 Liquidity $8K
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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? 10d left98%yes▲ 0.9pp7dVolume $559K 24h $19K Liquidity $102K
Lower volume means noisier prices. Weight the money-at-stake figure heavily when reading anything on this board.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 66 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about technology odds
How seriously should I take AI milestone odds?
As a live sentiment gauge among people willing to stake money, not as a technical forecast. These markets are thin, and definitions of “achieved” are set by the market's own resolution terms rather than by any research consensus.
Why does this board carry less money than the others?
Technology questions resolve on longer horizons and narrower criteria, which attracts fewer participants. AIOVEL still applies a $20,000 lifetime-volume floor so the thinnest contracts never reach the board.
What counts as a milestone being reached?
Whatever the market's resolution text says — usually a specific public demonstration, launch, or benchmark by a stated date. The wording is narrower than the headline nearly every time.