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Finance

Deal odds, priced before the deal is announced

Corporate-event markets carry a trap worth knowing about: many resolve on the announcement of a deal, not its completion. A market asking whether a company will be acquired can settle Yes on a signed agreement that later collapses. That makes these odds a read on deal news risk, which is a different and usually higher number than deal completion risk.

Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Finance
Money at stake
$35.3M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
5.0pp
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Most contested
55%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Track record
15
Finance markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Finance market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
Read these as probabilities of an announcement inside the window, not probabilities that a transaction ultimately closes.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
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11 markets · $35.3M
Technology
11 markets · $11.6M
Commodities
7 markets · $2.6M
Questions about finance odds
Does an acquisition market resolve on completion?
Often not. Many resolve on a publicly announced agreement “regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.” Always read the market's own terms before treating the number as a completion probability.
Are these odds tradeable signals for the underlying stock?
AIOVEL does not give investment advice. What these markets do offer is a continuously-updating consensus on event risk, which is hard to get from anywhere else at this frequency.
Why is volume lower than on the geopolitics board?
Company-specific questions attract a narrower audience. Lower volume means a wider spread and a price that a single participant can move further — read the liquidity figure alongside the probability.