Finance
Deal odds, priced before the deal is announced
Corporate-event markets carry a trap worth knowing about: many resolve on the announcement of a deal, not its completion. A market asking whether a company will be acquired can settle Yes on a signed agreement that later collapses. That makes these odds a read on deal news risk, which is a different and usually higher number than deal completion risk.
Live markets
11
Binary questions tracked in Finance
Money at stake
$34.7M
Lifetime traded volume
Biggest 7d swing
11.0pp
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Most contested
42%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Track record
15
Finance markets AIOVEL has followed to resolution
Every Finance market
Ranked by money at stake. Probability is the market-implied
chance of “Yes”; the 7d figure is how far that has moved this week.
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Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? 119d left4%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $8.0M 24h $118 Liquidity $9K
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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? 118d left89%yes— 0.1pp7dVolume $7.9M 24h $24K Liquidity $280K
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Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? 118d left0%yes— 0.0pp7dVolume $5.3M 24h $115 Liquidity $537K
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Will GameStop acquire eBay? 118d left7%yes— 0.5pp7dVolume $2.9M 24h $13K Liquidity $66K
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Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? 119d left14%yes▼ 1.5pp7dVolume $2.4M 24h $20 Liquidity $3K
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AI bubble burst in 2026? 119d left14%yes▲ 2.1pp7dVolume $2.4M 24h $12K Liquidity $20K
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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? 27d left1%yes▼ 1.1pp7dVolume $1.5M 24h $42K Liquidity $121K
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Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? 96d left42%yes▲ 11.0pp7dVolume $1.2M 24h $35K Liquidity $128K
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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? 118d left76%yes▼ 4.0pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $714 Liquidity $88K
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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? 119d left24%yes▼ 4.5pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $11K Liquidity $15K
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Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? 118d left12%yes▼ 2.5pp7dVolume $1.1M 24h $2K Liquidity $22K
Read these as probabilities of an announcement inside the window, not probabilities that a transaction ultimately closes.
See all six themes on the live radar
Probability against 7-day momentum, sized by money — all 62 markets on one chart
Other themes
Same board, different corner of the market.
Questions about finance odds
Does an acquisition market resolve on completion?
Often not. Many resolve on a publicly announced agreement “regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.” Always read the market's own terms before treating the number as a completion probability.
Are these odds tradeable signals for the underlying stock?
AIOVEL does not give investment advice. What these markets do offer is a continuously-updating consensus on event risk, which is hard to get from anywhere else at this frequency.
Why is volume lower than on the geopolitics board?
Company-specific questions attract a narrower audience. Lower volume means a wider spread and a price that a single participant can move further — read the liquidity figure alongside the probability.